Side quests

Projects I build on my own time. They usually start as a question I want answered properly, and stick around longer than I planned.

  1. 012025 — Present

    AVR — College Football Ratings

    A college football rating and prediction model. It rates all 138 FBS teams from returning production, roster talent, and prior-season finish, then predicts every game with calibrated win probabilities and margin intervals. Every published prediction is graded against the result and the scorecard is public.

    76.7%
    straight-up, 680 of 887 games graded in 2025
    11.99
    margin MAE across the core slate
    0.736
    correlation, predicted vs actual margin
    0.153
    Brier score on win probability
    AVR game prediction for North Carolina at TCU: projected margin distribution with an 80% interval, spread, total, moneyline, and a scoreline heatmap.
    A single game prediction — projected margin with its 80% interval, priced against the market line, and the likeliest scorelines.
    • Power and resume ratings, game predictions, season projections, and player grades, updated weekly through the season.
    • Prediction intervals land within a point of their targets — 80.6%, 89.9%, and 95.3% observed coverage against 80/90/95.
    • Publishes its own known limitations alongside the results, on the grounds that a scorecard listing only what went well is advertising.
    • Five seasons rated, back to 2022.
    Visit→